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We try to fix election polling (update)

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Original episode audio — courtesy of Planet Money

Planet Money examines election polling’s participation problem: people are not answering calls or agreeing to speak with pollsters, putting confidence in polling under pressure. The team visits Marist College, home of the Marist Poll, learns how polling works and conducts calls itself. Its central experiment is to take an idea from economics and test whether it can help polling. The show notes do not identify the hosts, guests or the specific economic idea.

The episode combines polling history, current polling science and hands-on experience with the techniques pollsters use to keep respondents engaged through a complete survey. Working with a polling firm gives the team a setting in which to test its proposed solution rather than merely discuss it. However, the notes provide no sample sizes, response rates, experimental design or findings, so they do not establish how effective the intervention is or whether any improvement in participation translates into better election estimates.

Originally published before the 2022 midterm elections, the episode now revisits the experiment while Marist continues testing the idea. The update explores what the work might reveal about the 2026 midterms, connecting an ongoing operational challenge to the next election cycle. The unresolved question is whether the approach can meaningfully strengthen polling; the notes establish continued testing, not a demonstrated fix. They also leave open how broadly the findings might apply beyond the setting in which Marist is testing them.

Why it matters

Professionals using election polls for planning should distinguish efforts to improve survey participation from evidence that forecasts have become more reliable. Before relying on a claimed polling improvement, ask what was tested, how success was measured and whether the findings apply to the electorate of interest. The continued Marist testing makes this a developing research effort rather than a settled solution. For decisions tied to the 2026 midterms, treat the proposed intervention as something to monitor, not an established correction to polling uncertainty.

Key takeaways

  • The episode identifies unanswered phone calls and unwillingness to speak with pollsters as central threats to polling.
  • Planet Money visits Marist College, home of the Marist Poll, to learn polling methods and conduct calls.
  • The team tests an idea drawn from economics with a polling firm; the notes do not disclose the mechanism.
  • Survey completion is a specific focus: the team learns techniques pollsters use to keep people answering questions.
  • The original episode appeared before the 2022 midterm elections.
  • Marist is still testing the proposed approach, and the update considers what it might reveal about the 2026 midterms.
  • The notes report no quantitative results or evidence that the approach improves election estimates.

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“People aren't picking up the phone.”

Books, articles & resources mentioned

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    Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life

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    Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletter

    Planet Money

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    Our weekly Indicator round-up newsletter

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    Marist Poll

    Marist College

    It is the polling organization visited by the team and is continuing to test the proposed intervention.

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    Partyline

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    The Danzig Connection

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    Saku

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Independent summary by PodPulse Digest based on the episode's public show notes. Not affiliated with Planet Money. All rights to the original audio belong to its creators.

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